Tuesday, March 16, 2010

A hand / day

I've decided to try to post an interesting hand each day and talk through my thought process.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5276175

In this hand I am the BB. I make a semi-loose call here preflop. I think it is OK to fold this hand. My opponent is fairly straight-forward, and I feel like I can outplay him after the flop. I flop top and bottom + an inside straight draw + the Q high flush draw and lead out. I've been leading strong hands and mostly been getting folds. He reraises pot. Immediately, I put him on 8s. He is not the type of player that is going to shove air or a draw here. Against a set of 8s I have fairly decent equity - not quite 50%. I decide to smoothcall here, although I don't think shoving is horrible either. The advantage to the smoothcall is I can fold the turn if another 8 or a 7 hits. The turn bricks and he bets 34 into 48. I think I have 2 Qs 7 dimes that don't pair the board 3 nondime 5s to win. That's 12 / 42 unknowns (assuming he has 8s) which makes me about 2 / 7 to win but I'm getting 34 : 82 on my money. 2 out of 7 times I win 82 which is 164. 5 out of 7 times I lose 34 which is 170. My play is actually slightly - ev, but it's very close. On the bright side, he was in for 200 and a few hands later he stacked off with top two + flush draw vs. my top set.

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